Thursday, December 13, 2007

Teams Going In Opposite Directions

Let's start off with the good side of things. One of the feel-good stories so far this year has been New Orleans and their new 30-year old coach, Joe Pasternack, who wanted the head coaching job that other coaches left for assistant gigs down the benches at other, higher-profile schools.

So far, it seems that Pasternack was the perfect guy for the job, as the Privateers have now beaten NC State and Colorado on the road. Add to that four other wins, and UNO is 6-1.

The Privateers are also doing it with senior leadership with guys like Shaun Reynolds, James Parlow, Bo McCalebb and Ben Elias. Parlow and McCalebb are from New Orleans and had their families affected two and a half years ago by Hurricane Katrina.

McCalebb can flat out score on anybody, and even declared in the spring for the draft, before water-testing and coming back to school. He's one of the players at the mid-major level that college basketball diehards know probably doesn't get his due from the national powers that be.

The revelation for UNO this year has been juco transfer Kendall Dykes, who is averaging nearly 15 a game on 52% shooting and is his team's leading rebounder to boot. While Western Kentucky are still the favorites in the Sun Belt, teams like UNO, South Alabama and, yes, North Texas all look like contending for the crown.

On the bad side of things there's Louisville, a team that is really in shambles right now.

The most intriguing game of the many I watched last Saturday was Dayton and Louisville. In the first half, you could have removed the names from the jerseys and it would have been Dayton who looked like the preseason Final Four contenders and Louisville the consensus bubble/NIT team.

The final score wound up 70-65, but was only that close because Dayton had a prolonged cold spell from the floor in the first part of the second half. Brian Roberts of Dayton was simply amazing and went for 28 on 10-17 shooting.

Here were the weird things, both on the Louisville side.
1) Rick Pitino benching PG Edgar Sosa with around 10 minutes remaining and the game very close. This is a Louisville team without David Padgett and Juan Palacios. They suited up just eight scholarship players.

Sure, Sosa was playing poorly, but to bench a key player for the last 10 minutes of the second half on a team with little-to-no depth seemed bizarre.

2) The other is Derrick Caracter, who should have to have his named changed for media purposes to Derrick Caracter 'Issues'. This is a guy that, without Padgett available, absolutely needs to perform for his team to have a chance in a close game. Instead he chooses, on one play in particular, to sulk in the lane after being denied the ball on the right block by good Flyers defense. There were other times where Caracter looked content with being fronted in the post.

He led his team with 16 in that game, but that fails to tell any part of the story.

A couple days ago, it was learned that Caracter has been suspended indefinitely for violating team curfew. So, if you're scoring at home, this is a team whose point guard is in his coach's doghouse (for whatever reason, no one ever knows these things when we're talking about Pitino) and is down to seven scholarship players.

But yet, this is analogous to last December when Louisville was 5-4 and looked to be going nowhere then. Watch out for another 'They've really gotten things together" kind of run in last January and February, even though it seems like a stretch right now.

Wednesday, December 05, 2007

The Hardly-Live Blog: North Texas @ Texas Second Half

11:40 - FG% for the first half: UNT 32%, Texas 50%. Augustin and Abrams each have 14.

11:43 - Keith Wooden returns to start the second half, and his two illegal picks in the first two minutes started to set the tone for the first nine minutes of this game.

11:46 - It is truly amazing how much better Connor Atchley is this season than last. I look at him and wonder if it's even the same guy. He's about nineteen steps quicker as well.

11:50 - 15:54 remaining, and it's 59-37 Texas. Josh White is still playing great, but so are Augustin and Abrams.

11:54 - Keith Wooden is starting to play better down low, and just had a nice offensive rebound, put back and plus one sequence. 61-40, Texas.

11:58 - Josh White is so exciting to watch, and will go in for rebounds at 5-10 to boot.

11:59 - Josh White is former Oklahoma player Quantas White's brother? How did I not know this? Quantas' little brother hits his fourth and fifth threes. Lead goes to sixteen points.

12:01 - White with another 3! That's six! And the lead's just 13! 64-51! Woo!

12:04- Wooden from 15 feet! 11 point game! (I need to stop with the exclamation points!)

12:05 - Wooden again with a tap in! Single digit ball game. UT on an 18-3 run in the last 5 minutes. 64-55, Texas.

12:08 - UT comes back with baskets from Damion James and Abrams, but Wooden puts one in after that, 68-57, Texas.

12:09 - 7:34 remains in this game and it's a slightly manageable 13 points, 70-57, Texas.

12:12 - I can't help but think if only UNT had played better D in the first half...and those turnovers...

12:14 - Augustin and Abrams are beginning to get their unstoppability cloak back, after a bit of a lull when UNT made their run. 76-61, Texas, 5:43 remains.

12:18 - Quincy Williams misses a 14-footer from the baseline, and he's been off tonight, 80-64, Texas with 4:58 to go.

12:20 - Augustin drives and finishes (common theme tonight) and the lead is back to 19 points. Augustin has a Josh White-like 27.

12:21 - This just in: Augustin and Abrams are really good. They've combined for 50 and somehow, after all that UNT work, the lead is to 20.

12:23 - Wooden muscles his way down low for a bucket and he now has 17 in the second half. Lead is still 18 points, but I've seen so many good things out of them in this half.

12:27 - The Longhorns have had about a 90-second possession after some offensive boards, and the game is coming to a close. Final score in Austin, about three and a half hours ago, 88-72, Texas.

Awesome performances by Josh White (all game) and Keith Wooden (second half), but Abrams and Augustin were just so bloody good all the way through.

The Hardly-Live Blog: North Texas @ Texas First Half

10:25 PM - Ladies and gentlemen, if you are reading this, you may be reading history. Because, to my knowledge no one has EVER done a live blog of a game three and a half hours after the fact. Have I researched that? Absolutely not. And don't try to doubt me with your fact. Don't even try.

10:28 - So it's undefeated Texas, coming off a win at Pauley Pavilion against mighty UCLA, and North Texas, coming off of a comeback win against New Mexico State that they had to fight hard, 75-72.

10:30 - This game was to appear on FSN Southwest at 10:30. But just as I thought, the Stars probably went into overtime, and FSN is having postgame on a game that about 20 people watched. By the way, I worked with FSN SW for my senior year high school internship, and if I hadn't have lost the tape room number they'd be getting an earful right now.

10:33 - This gives me a chance to say screw you, who ever was doing the radio play-by-play for NMSU on Saturday night. We are NOT North Texas State University. And we haven't been since about 1983.
(Note to any Sun Belt fans: This gets us pissed off beyond almost anything else. Like you didn't know that.)

Of course, UNT's broadcasters were covering the Mean Green football game, which at the Sun Belt level of D-1A means absolutely nothing.

10:36 - If this is STARS postgame, then why am I seeing a Cowboys segment on my TV?

10:38 - And the broadcast is on! If North Texas is to win this game they have to play up-tempo and have Keith Wooden and Quincy Williams control the glass. The last time the Mean Green played against a team with this much talent, it was against Memphis in the NCAA First Round, a game where they hung around for a half and then some.

10:42 - It's almost criminal for me to not mention what Texas has done, how everyone is chipping in and how well they are shooting.

10:43 - Opening tip.

10:44 - First three by Texas, this could happen often. And on the other end three possessions, three turnovers for UNT.

10:46 - 7-0 Texas, Johnny Jones needs a timeout. Connor Atchley with five early ones.

10:48 - Make it four early turnovers for UNT. There's some silly play going on out there and they need to calm down.

10:49 - This...is..not..good. Under 16 timeout, and it's 17-3 Texas. UNT is not closing down on these shooters and Texas is making them pay for it. The Mean Green went down quickly against NMSU, but this is a totally different animal. And Keith Wooden has two early fouls on illegal picks. Ten possessions, six turnovers for UNT. Ken Pomeroy is not pleased.

10:55 - The problem with trying to play uptempo for UNT is that Texas is just as fast as they are in transition defense. And I'm starting to sound like I actually thought UNT would be in this game in the first half.

10:58 - Under 12 timeout and it's 23-8, Texas. Texas is obviously playing well, but UNT can do so much better on defense.

11:00 - Oh come on, guys, it's not like you're Hartford or anything! (Coincidentally, this is UNT's next opponent.) Nine turnovers already. Ben Bell and Collin Dennis don't even have their D games tonight.

11:04 - 29-8 Texas. This could be a horror show before all is said and done.

11:05 - Collin Dennis just got a great steal at midcourt...before missing the layup. Oh dear, Oh dear.

11:07 - Did the announcers just say UT's Dexter Pittman had a body fat percentage of 41 when he stepped on campus??? How do you get a scholarship being that out of shape? Thankfully, for UT, Pittman has lost 70 pounds since then.

11:09 - Josh White converts a four-point play for the Mean Green, 29-12 Texas.

11:12 - Things just a wee bit better for UNT, who are hitting some shots and playing better defense (although it couldn't have been any worse to start), 33-16 Texas.

11:14 - Longhorns have been playing 2-3 zone for much of this game, and UNT isn't able to exploit the holes. Hell, UCLA couldn't crack it either and the pollsters told me they were the number one team in the nation.

11:18 - AJ Abrams is now 5-5 from the floor. 37-18, Texas 4:30 left in the first half.

11:19 - Abrams finally misses a triple, and it's 37-20 with 3:58 left.

11:21 - Josh Bell, commentator X???? That would be Ben Bell. Or perhaps you meant Josh White.

11:24 - Johnny Jones gets T'ed up and basically for just asking why UNT had a foul go against them after DJ Augustin performed a rugby manuever. Ok, maybe not just that.

11:27 - Josh White now has 13 points, and is clearly the best player tonight for UNT. 41-24 Texas with 1:38 left in the half after Rick Barnes takes timeout.

11:29 - Harold Stewart gets an intentional foul called on him for doing nothing with intent seemingly. It's now 46-24 after an Atchley three.

11:31 - End of the first half, and it's 48-26 Texas. Great performance so far by the Longhorns and they are living up to that top-five billing. I don't have the possession stats, but I'd estimate Texas' O-PPP being somewhere in the 1.3 range. The Mean Green's best chance to keep this game close was with rebounding and the transition game, and Texas has more than answered on both fronts.

UNT has, however, been about even for the last 10 minutes in this game. If they can keep that up, play better defense against Augustin and Abrams (tough ask, I know), and have more than just Josh White contribute offensively; that will be a fair showing against one of the best teams in the nation.

Patrick Mills, You Star



The seven-month absence of college hoops in our lives is something that, while somewhat necessary, sucks. So I needed a sport to follow in the bright, skin-reddening summertime.

I've gradually soured on baseball for a variety of reasons to the point where I only watch select LCS and World Series games. The one MLB game I have attended in the last three years, a Rangers-Yankees game this past April, happened on the same night as two NBA playoff games. I felt for my friends, who were surely distracted by my constant use of binoculars to look at the TV's in the suites for score updates/live action.

Eventually, I turned to Aussie Rules Football, a sport I was turned on to a few years back by a lovely brunette foreign exchange student from Tasmania and before that by accident watching the now-defunct Fox Sports World channel one night. The clip at the beginning of this post is of that great sport.

After a summer of following the real AFL (please just go away arena football, you're wasting everyone's time and money with this drivel) and the fast-paced exciting game of Aussie Rules, it was in a word, cool, to see the best individual performance of the first month of the college basketball season come from an uber-talented Aussie in Patrick Mills. (Mills, who is from Canberra, probably grew up preferring rugby and rugby league [two different sports] to aussie rules, however.)

If you don't follow St. Mary's, or can't remember why you think you heard the name 'Patrick Mills' on Sportscenter about three weeks back, the freshman (yes, just a frosh) put up 37 against Oregon in just his fourth college game.

It's said that Mills is adored by the aboriginal Australian community, and if you've even so much as watched him play on TV in his young college career, you'll be able to see why.

Programming note: I'll be back later tonight with what I believe to be is the internet's first ever 'Hardly-Live Blog' of a game when my school, North Texas, plays at Texas in a game that is being played as I type.

(This was facilitated by two things: not enough people paying for the $35 bus and ticket package being offered by UNT athletics, and FSN Southwest picking up the game at the 11th hour, but on tape delay at 10:30 CT due to a hockey game 10 people will watch. [Damned state that cares more about football than hoops and damned televised hockey rights.])

Monday, December 03, 2007

Props to Butler

Is it possible that this Butler team is even better than that 29-win, Indiana-Notre Dame-Tennessee-Gonzaga slaying squad? Well, anything's possible and that previous question makes me sound like some windbag on Around The Horn.

The four power-conference teams Butler has beaten probably won't turn out as good as the aforementioned quartet. (Especially after something like this. Sweet revenge for Tommy Amaker!) But the point is this. Butler's shooting was downright unconscious in Alaska and included a 56-possession, 81 points scored game against Texas Tech (that's 1.44 per if you're scoring at home).

On Saturday against Ohio State, their the same could not be said offensively. They shot 25% in the first half, but their defense kept them within reasonable distance at 30-20. Then, the defense went into complete overdrive, forcing turnovers on 38% of Ohio State possessions and holding them to just 16 second-half points.

Butler also 'took what the defense gave them' (hey, I can use cliches, too!) by using Matt Howard to eviscerate the Buckeyes' let's-defend-the-three defense for 23 on 9-for-13.

Butler opens up their conference slate on Thursday against Detroit (of the Mercy variety, and it might fit in this game) and then has the grudge match from last year at Wright State on Saturday.

Sunday, March 11, 2007

FINAL Bracket Projection

Midwest
1. Ohio St. (1) v. 16. Central Connecticut St./Florida A&M
8. Villanova v. 9. Georgia Tech

4. Washington St. v. 13. Wright St.
5. Tennessee v. 12. Davidson

2. Texas A&M v. 15. North Texas
7. Southern Cal v. 10. Michigan St.

3. Memphis v. 14. Miami (OH)
6. Marquette v. 11. Winthrop

West
1. UCLA (4) v. 16. Weber St.
8. Vanderbilt v. 9. Indiana

4. UNLV v. 13. Holy Cross
5. Virginia Tech v. 12. Stanford

2. North Carolina v. 15. Belmont
7. Butler v. 10. Syracuse

3. Texas v. 14. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
6. Creighton v. 11. Old Dominion

South
1. Kansas (2) v. 16. Niagara
8. Arizona v. 9. Xavier

4. Maryland v. 13. George Washington
5. Notre Dame v. 12. New Mexico St.

2. Georgetown v. 15. Penn
7. Virginia v. 10. Texas Tech

3. Southern Illinois v. 14. Oral Roberts
6. BYU v. 11. Purdue

East
1. Florida (3) v. 16. Jackson St.
8. Boston College v. 9. Virginia Commonwealth

4. Oregon v. 13. Albany
5. Louisville v. 12. Gonzaga

2. Wisconsin v. 15. Eastern Kentucky
7. Duke v. 10. Kentucky

3. Pittsburgh v. 14. Long Beach St.
6. Nevada v. 11. Kansas St.

Last Four In: Purdue, Kansas St., Old Dominion, Stanford
Last Four Out: Arkansas, Drexel, Air Force, West Virginia

Saturday, March 10, 2007

Say hello to the champions

Specifically, Oregon, George Washington, Jackson State, UNLV, Florida A&M and Miami University. The last two mentioned won their bids at the buzzer.

Florida A&M won it after a tip-in from a halfcourt inbounds pass with 1.1 seconds left. Miami U won after Akron missed the front end of a one-and-one that could have seen them up go up by four, but Miami got the rebound and raced back down to win it when Doug Penno side-stepped an defender to get an open look for a bank shot winner. There was some timing controversy that put .6 on the clock but fortunately didn't really end up mattering.

In those games that weren't as dramatic at 00.0, Oregon put a beatdown on USC thanks to a perfect game from the floor and the line from underrated junior guard Bryce Taylor, who had 32. G-Dub won the A-10 with four guys getting in double figures. Jackson State had 33 from super-scorer Trey Johnson and UNLV withstood 34 from Keena Young to beat BYU on their home floor. I just wish that Mountain West game could have been played in Denver, with no home court to either team (the home team won all three meetings).

NC State wins again

NC State has now beaten Duke, and the ACC's number two and three seeds on three consecutive nights. They now will go for the one, two, three sweep against North Carolina.

Now, on to a couple of teams that will definitely be in the show.

Notre Dame and Georgetown equally impressed me in that matchup last night. It was truly a top five game this year, along with four others probably involving Texas.

Notre Dame showed that they can force the tempo against a truly elite team (yes, Georgetown is that good) that does not play the high-tempo offensive game. Conversely, for Georgetown, they showed that they can hang in a game when they are not controlling the tempo with what I like to call "The Princeton Offense for Major-Conference Talent". After Notre Dame had their double-digit lead early in the first half, Georgetown decided to run with them and count on the turning point in the game being halftime. That's exactly what the Hoyas ended up doing, playing more of their style in the second half.

It was also a very hard-fought game for being so high-scoring and showed that Notre Dame can play a little defense when it was needed with the Irish down seven late.

The contest, regardless of what happens tonight against Pittsburgh, affirmed my belief that Georgetown can go very deep in the tournament. For Notre Dame, it made me think that, with the right draw, that they could be a Sweet 16 or Elite 8 team.

The next set of games on this oh-so-beautiful day of hoops features a bunch of conference title game with the A10, Pac-10, MEAC, SWAC, MAC and MWC winners all to be decided in the next three hours or so.

The Eighth ACC Team?

No, I'm not talking about Florida State. I'm talking about NC State. They are currently up on Virginia Tech, a team they swept in the regular season. If they win, they get UNC in the final to possibly knock a bubble-dweller out.

In other news, I hate Illinois. I can't believe that this pathetic, no offense team will likely be in the tournament. Sure the defense is good, maybe bordering on top 10 in the nation. BUT THEY CAN'T HIT A SHOT!!! AT ALL!!! I can't watch this team or their game with Wisconsin, who is like them but whose offense is like Tennessee's compared to Illinois'. I would be thrilled tomorrow if the committee keeps both them and Air Force out. I'm afraid (not only for my wishes, but the tournament overall) that Illinois will still be in, however.

Kansas State and Purdue, meanwhile, while no one is confusing them with Top 4 seeds, I feel (and the committee should feel) did enough today to challenge elite teams to get in.

I promise to talk about teams that are actually going to be in the field for my next entry.

Albany wins in "The Cathouse"

Vermont had the ball down by one against Albany with 30 seconds left and didn't even get a shot off before turning it over with about five seconds to go. Why? The held the friggin' ball for the last shot.

I will acknowledge that if holding the ball works, the coach looks like a genius. But you're down by one! In that case, even if you want to hold the ball for a little bit of time, you should start the play by 20 seconds have a shot off at the very latest by 10. That way, you can get an offensive rebound or foul if the other team gets the rebound.

All this strategy talk takes away form the fact that Albany went into a really difficult place to play, and allowed their star and conference player of the year to take over. Jamar Wilson had 20, but his most important plays came when he was able to drive and then dish to guys like Jason Siggers (Dallas product) and Carl Ross who were able to hit open jumpers after Vermont collapsed four guys on Wilson.

In other action, UNC is controlling BC and an overrated Jared Dudley, and Purdue and Kansas State are playing their potential top-seeded oppositions close. Memphis won, and Arkansas is beating Mississippi State with under twelve to go.

Quick seeding update

Here's an S-Curve update after the craziness of yesterday and last night:

1: Ohio St., Kansas, Florida, UCLA
2: Texas A&M, Georgetown, Wisconsin, North Carolina
3: Pittsburgh, Memphis, Southern Illinois, Washington St.
4: Maryland, Virginia Tech, UNLV, Texas
5: Oregon, Notre Dame, BYU, Tennessee
6: Marquette, Creighton, Southern Cal, Louisville
7: Nevada, Virginia, Boston College, Duke
8: Villanova, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Butler
9: Xavier, Georgia Tech, Arizona, VCU
10: Michigan St., Syracuse, Indiana, Texas Tech
11: Purdue, Winthrop, Old Dominion, Kansas St.
12: Akron, Davidson, Illinois, Gonzaga
13: George Washington, New Mexico St., Wright St., Vermont
14: Penn, Texas A&M-CC, Oral Roberts, Holy Cross
15: Long Beach St., Belmont, Delaware St., North Texas
16: Miss. Valley St., Central Conn. St., Weber St., Eastern Kentucky, Niagara

The first of many

The first two of the eleven conference championship games today are underway and Memphis is unsurprisingly leading Houston. Houston just keeps hanging in there though, and are doing it on very tired legs as Tom Penders has hadly made any subs during the three game conference tournament run. However, Houston is in some foul trouble which could lead to a widening of Memphis' current lead, hovering around double digits. Memphis and their penetration to the basket has been good, so they shouldn't have many problems coasting to the win on their home floor.

In a somewhat surprising result after a half, Albany leads Vermont. Just that phrase doesn't surprise me as much as how the Great Danes are doing it by basically out-toughing one of the toughest teams in the country. Albany's post players are crashing the glass in an excellent manner on the nation's top rebounding team. It also helps that Albany has the truly great Jamar Wilson, who has superior quickness to anyone else on the floor (by far) and might just single handedly take this game over.

Bubble-shrinking Friday

And, perhaps, Saturday and Sunday could turn into bubble shrinking days as well.

So much happened yesterday that I don't know where to start. But I will start with a couple of the definite games that watched a couple of spots get eaten up from the at-large pool. In the WAC, Nevada lost again to Utah State, meaning that the Aggies will take on....the Aggies (of New Mexico State) for the auto bid. The game is on NMSU's home floor, where they haven't lost this season, and I would be shocked if Utah State pulled this one out. Nevada's definitely in, but these two losses in about a two-week span may drop their seeding a couple of lines.

George Washington and Rhode Island will play for a dance ticket after the Rams beat Xavier, who is on rockier footing than Nevada, but should still be in.

Yesterday also brought us a few bubble teams capitalizing on their opportunities in their respective conference tournaments.

Kansas State put a defensive beatdown on Texas Tech in a 66-45 win. I have no doubt that the committee was saying to themselves yesterday afternoon, "That's quite a statement." I feel that they should be in now. However, I felt Florida State would be in after beating Clemson Thursday afternoon, and after the uninspired performance against UNC, nothing could be farther from the truth. In short, if the Wildcats stay in the game today against Kansas and don't get blown out, they should be fine.

Purdue slapped Iowa in a similar matter in the Big Ten, and Illinois beat Indiana. If I was on the committee, I would surely have Purdue in right now, and Illinois still out. However, I'm not on the committee (obviously) and I feel that if the Illini don't get thrashed by Wisconsin today that the group of ten will pick them.

The bubble could shrink further in the next 30 hours after NC State has made a surprise run to the ACC semis, one of Arkansas or Mississippi State will play for a Sunday SEC bid, Oklahoma State is in the Big 12 semis after beating an offensively stagnant Texas A&M team. Also, let's not forget that Houston could beat Memphis and take a bid away in the C-USA title game. Will all four of these conferences turn up surprise auto bid winners? Probably not. But could one or two? Don't be surprised.

Today is also my day of marathon blogging starting up in about an hour and a half and not ending until the Big West crowns a champion around 1 am eastern time. Nineteen games will be played today, 17 on national TV, and 11 of which will punch dance tickets. Today is also the the day where so many of the pieces of the puzzle fall into place, ranging from mid-major conference bids to major conference seedings to be officially determined tomorrow.

Friday, March 09, 2007

Brackets as of 3-8

Midwest
1. Ohio St. (1) v. 16. Mississippi Valley St.
8. Kentucky v. 9. Texas Tech

4. Nevada v. 13. Wright St.
5. Maryland v. 12. Old Dominion

2. Georgetown v. 15. Delaware St.
7. Southern Cal v. 10. Georgia Tech

3. Memphis v. 14. Oral Roberts
6. BYU v. 11. Winthrop

West
1. UCLA (4) v. 16. Weber St.
8. Boston College v. 9. Villanova

4. Texas v. 13. Davidson
5. UNLV v. 12. Purdue

2. North Carolina v. 15. Belmont
7. Creighton v. 10. Michigan St.

3. Pittsburgh v. 14. Penn
6. Tennessee v. 11. Stanford

South
1. Kansas (2) v. 16. Eastern Kentucky
8. Butler v. 9. Xavier

4. Virginia Tech v. 13. Holy Cross
5. Notre Dame v. 12. Gonzaga

2. Wisconsin v. 15. Long Beach St.
7. Vanderbilt v. 10. Syracuse

3. Southern Illinois v. 14. Toledo
6. Oregon v. 11. Florida St.

East
1. Florida (3) v. 16. Niagara
8. Arizona v. 9. Indiana

4. Virginia v. 13. Vermont
5. Louisville v. 12. Missouri St.

2. Texas A&M v. 15. North Texas
7. Duke v. 10. Air Force

3. Washington St. v. 14. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
6. Marquette v. 11. Virginia Commonwealth

Thursday, March 08, 2007

A special bid; The second phase of Championship Week

What I like to call Act I of Championship Week (plus a few days) is now over. It has left us with a Old Dominion vs. Drexel debate somewhat analogous to the George Mason vs. Hofstra debate a year ago, Missouri State with an identical wait from last year's snub and countless ESPN askings of the question of "Who is this year's George Mason?"

More importantly though, fourteen teams have played their way into the field, the most important to me being North Texas winning the Sun Belt.

If you try and look through this blog, I'm not sure you will find one mention that I go to the University of North Texas. In fact, I think I have made only one passing reference to "my Mean Green" back in January. I just never talk about them on here because I didn't want to overdo this blog with Sun Belt/UNT talk, and have this be a total homer-ass website. But yet, I have been following this team for several years now, and Tuesday night was one of the more special ones I have had as a college hoops fan.

In the numerous amount of games I have attended at the UNT Coliseum (colloquially known as and always referred to as the Super Pit) over the past few years, dating back to when I was in high school, I always (at least once a game) took a look up at the banner saying "NCAA TOURNAMENT 1988". The 1988 is positioned below and to the left side of the text to have the room to put more years up on the banner, and to confidently say, "Yeah, we'll be back."

Games and wins and losses went by and I would always say to myself, "Man, it would be great if we could put up another year up there while I'm here." And two nights ago, after a thrilling and sometimes tense four-game conference tournament run, they earned the right to put another year on that banner.

Now back to Championship Week (plus a few days) and these next two days, usually the second wildest pair of back-to-back days coming behind the first two days of the big dance.

Today (and actually about an hour from now) will feature the most significant 8-9 game in ACC history between Clemson and Florida State. This isn't a play-in game, but it sure as hell is a play-out game. The loser would be well-advised to start lobbying for NIT home games right when the final buzzer sounds. A couple of other bubbilicious games include West Virginia probably needing a win against Louisville in the Garden to get in and Stanford trying to avoid a potential fall out of the field against USC.

Wednesday, March 07, 2007

A slight bracket update

Hardly any changes. This is just to reflect our new auto bid winners.


1: UCLA, Ohio State, Kansas, Wisconsin
2: Georgetown, Texas A&M, Florida, North Carolina
3: Southern Illinois, Memphis, Maryland, Pittsburgh
4: Marquette, Virginia, Tennessee, Washington St.
5: Virginia Tech, Texas, Nevada, Notre Dame
6: Louisville, Southern Cal, Vanderbilt, UNLV
7: Oregon, Duke, BYU, Arizona
8: Butler, Indiana, Creighton, Boston College
9: Xavier, Air Force, Kentucky, Villanova
10: Georgia Tech, VCU, Texas Tech, Syracuse
11: Stanford, Clemson, Michigan St., Winthrop
12: Davidson, Old Dominion, Purdue, Missouri St.
13: Gonzaga, Wright St., Vermont, Holy Cross
14: Penn, Toledo, Texas A&M-CC, Oral Roberts
15: Long Beach St., Belmont, Delaware St., North Texas (more on this later)
16: (Miss. Valley St., Central Connecticut) Weber St., Eastern Kentucky, Niagara

Monday, March 05, 2007

Seeding S-Curve 3-5

Basically, the order of number one seeds is one through four, left to right across your computer screen and then going down the order like a snake. For example, Maryland is my number 11 overall seed.

1: UCLA, Ohio State, Kansas, Wisconsin
2: Georgetown, Texas A&M, Florida, North Carolina
3: Southern Illinois, Memphis, Maryland, Pittsburgh
4: Marquette, Virginia, Tennessee, Washington St.
5: Virginia Tech, Texas, Nevada, Notre Dame
6: Louisville, Southern Cal, Vanderbilt, UNLV
7: Oregon, Duke, BYU, Arizona
8: Butler, Indiana, Creighton, Boston College
9: Xavier, Air Force, Kentucky, Villanova
10: Georgia Tech, Michigan St., Texas Tech, Syracuse
11: Stanford, Virginia Commonwealth, Clemson, Winthrop
12: Davidson, Old Dominion, Purdue, Missouri St.
13: Gonzaga, Wright St., Vermont, Holy Cross
14: Penn, Toledo, Texas A&M-CC, Oral Roberts
15: Western Kentucky, Long Beach St., Niagara, Belmont
16: (Miss. Valley St., Central Connecticut) Weber St., Eastern Kentucky, Delaware St.

The last teams out (and in this order): Florida St., Drexel, Illinois, West Virginia, UMass, Kansas St., Appalachian St., Arkansas

Saturday, March 03, 2007

A major conference championship game

Well, not technically. However, the game between Kansas and Texas did decide the number one seed in next week's Big 12 Tournament, making it a defacto Big 12 title game.

Basically, a couple of incredibly efficient offensive halves were played, one by each team (Texas in the first, Kansas in the second). So naturally, the team that played the best defense when they were on offensively won the game. And that happened to be Kansas, who came out with a sense of purpose in the second to erase a 12-point halftime deficit quicker than it took three field goals to be made in the Michigan St.-Wisconsin game (I'm not kidding).

The incredible Kevin Durant had 20 by the eight-minute break in the first half, but was shut down in the second half much like he was in the second half of the Texas-Villanova game. The should-be national player of the year went down later in the half with an a rolled ankle and was not the same after coming back noticeably injured, but was not being able to do a whole lot before the injury.

Look, I'm not going to blame Rick Barnes for not setting up a bunch of iso plays for Durant, but I will blame the team's youth. The common thread in both this game and the Villanova game was that Durant was taken out of his rhythm when the opponent got their offensive game moved into the next gear. Texas' young players got rattled defensively in each game and that carried over to the offensive end. Even Durant, as great as he is, doesn't move as much without the ball when the other team is on a game-changing run. That's an extremely minor complaint about Durant's game, however, which is just about as complete as any 18-year old's game has ever been.

Also, be prepared to hear that this injury will really damage Texas, but Durant will be fine on the ankle after a couple days of rest.

Another night, another upset

The Southern Conference tournament was supposed to conclude with a battle royale between the two teams that ate up select national headlines at times, Davidson and Appalachian State. Each team had 25 wins, but needed to win the SoCon tournament for bids due to the (very) weak underbelly of lower-tier SoCon teams.

Dontaye Draper and Charleston had other ideas, and took down the only conference team that beat Davidson in the regular season by winning 89-87 in OT. Draper had eight threes and finished with 38 points in one of the season's great performances. Charleston was a sick 11-of-21 from behind the arc.

So now, instead of the rematch between teams with 32 combined conference wins, the focus switches to whether or not Bobby Cremins can return to the NCAAs in his first year at the helm in the Lowcountry by beating a Davidson team led by freshman Stephen Curry.

In other conference tourney action, form actually held in an Arch Madness quarterfinal round for what seems like the first time this millenium. The victories by Creighton and Missouri State likely mean that this conference is a lock for three bids and will not have to be sweating (as hard as last year) on Selection Sunday. However, if Bradley can knock off Southern Illinois this afternoon, it sets up and intriguing Sunday scenario where the Valley could get their four bids from a year ago.

My dream of Yale sending the Ivy into apocalypse was officially killed off by Penn last night, clinching the first of the 31 auto bids for the Quakers.

Four conferences that decide things like they should give out their invites today. In addition to the aforementioned SoCon title game, East Tennessee State plays Belmont in the A-Sun, Winthrop and VMI get together in the Big South and Austin Peay takes on Eastern Kentucky in the Ohio Valley.

Thursday, March 01, 2007

VMI shocks the world

...or at least those who follow the Big South. VMI, who had lost to 22-win High Point twice in the regular season by an average of 14 points, took down the Panthers and their shot for the auto bid, 91-81. VMI will take on Winthrop, who swept them as well during the regular season, for one of the first automatic bids.

VMI took down the team that was basically a forgone conclusion for Saturday afternoon in Rock Hill based on their ability to shut down newly-crowned Big South POY Arizona Reid. Reid was just 5-of-14 for 13 points, eight below his season average. VMI also found just about every open shot on the night from just about every spot on the floor and dominated points in the paint. Likely national scoring champion Reggie Williams scored 28 (right at his average) on 9-of-18.

(By the way, I have an beef with the people who put together those graphics for ESPN. Obviously, VMI is going to score the most points in the country. They play the fastest pace! And obviously, they are also going to give up a lot of points. Why? They play the fastest pace! I feel like so many poor folk are missing out on a beautiful, tempo-free world.)

(Oh, and for the record, VMI is 127th in offensive efficiency and 288th in defensive efficiency.)

Speaking of pace, two of the fastest in North Carolina and Georgia Tech got together and Georgia Tech came out on top by catching absolute fire during a 25-or-so-minute stretch that went from about 15 minutes left in the first until about 10 were left in the game.

It's that time of year again...

Say what you want about the holidays, but this is the most wonderful time of the year. In November and December you have your three holidays, but in this one month, you have so many memorable days and nights that cannot be found in any other sport.

The first jewel of March, Championship Week (plus a few days), started in earnest two days ago as the first set of conference tournaments got underway. For the most part, things have held to form, except for Army defeating Lehigh in the Bucknell-Holy Cross League and VMI beating Liberty in the Big South in a slow-for-the-Keydets 79-78 game.

And right now, VMI is beating No. 2 seed High Point, with under eight to go.

More after the jump (to use a trite blog phrase that I've never understood).

Monday, February 26, 2007

Bracket Time 2-26

West
1) UCLA (1) v. 16) Weber St.
8) Air Force v. 9) Creighton

4) Maryland v. 13) Vermont
5) Vanderbilt v. 12) Syracuse

2) Georgetown v. 15) South Alabama
7) UNLV v. 10) Texas Tech

3) Memphis v. 14) Oral Roberts
6) Oregon v. 11) Illinois

South
1) Florida (4) v. 16) East Tennessee St.
8) Butler v. 9) Arizona

4) Pittsburgh v. 13) Wright St.
5) Boston College v. 12) West Virginia

2) Wisconsin v. 15) Austin Peay
7) Louisville v. 10) Old Dominion

3) Virginia Tech v. 14) Penn
6) Texas v. 11) Purdue

Midwest
1) Ohio St. (2) v. 16) Jackson St./Central Connecticut St.
8) Kentucky v. 9) Stanford

4) Duke v. 13) Holy Cross
5) Southern Cal v. 12) Virginia Commonwealth

2) Texas A&M v. 15) Sam Houston St.
7) Michigan St. v. 10) Xavier

3) Southern Illinois v. 14) Toledo
6) Tennessee v. 11) Villanova

East
1) North Carolina (3) v. 16) Delaware St.
8) Indiana v. 9) BYU

4) Nevada v. 13) Santa Clara
5) Notre Dame v. 12) Winthrop

2) Kansas v. 15) Long Beach St.
7) Marquette v. 10) Missouri St.

3) Washington St. v. 14) Marist
6) Virginia v. 11) Davidson

Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Seedings 2-20

1: UCLA, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida
2: Texas A&M, Pittsburgh, Kansas, Ohio St.
3: Washington St., Georgetown, Memphis, Southern Illinois
4: Duke, Virginia Tech, Air Force, Nevada
5: Butler, Virginia, Vanderbilt, Marquette
6: Stanford, Indiana, Kentucky, Boston College
7: Texas, Southern Cal, BYU, Tennessee
8: Maryland, Notre Dame, Arizona, Oregon
9: Louisville, UNLV, Alabama, West Virginia
10: Villanova, Oklahoma St., Creighton, Xavier
11: Purdue, Clemson, Winthrop, Clemson
12: Virginia Comm., Akron, Davidson, Syracuse
13: Wright St., Santa Clara, Rhode Island, Holy Cross
14: Penn, Vermont, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Oral Roberts
15: Marist, Long Beach St., South Alabama, Austin Peay
16: Jackson St., Central Conn. St., Delaware St., Weber St., East Tennessee St.

Monday, February 19, 2007

Random-ness, Why I Don't Have Seedings/a Bracket here

To answer the second part first, it's because I'm simply waiting for the Kansas-Kansas State game tonight. If K-State wins, they are in for this week. The Wildcats lose and they are out and Purdue jumps in to take their place. I also ended up having to do something this week that I absolutely hate doing, and that is replacing a team in the bracket after they haven't lost during the week (Illinois in this case). But I refuse to ignore an 8-5 team in the Big East (Syracuse). This is also the time of year where "if the season ended today" plays a gi-normous role.

Look at Purdue's remaining schedule: @ Iowa, @ Northwestern, Minnesota, Northwestern again. Very real possibility to go 4-0 in that stretch (although I think I jinxed them there)

Syracuse has @ Providence, G-Town and @ Villanova. Very real chance to go 0-3 right there.

Now on to notes:
-This past Saturday with the BracketBusters is just so awesome. I started watching games at 11 am (Central) and didn't stop until New Mexico State had defended their seemingly impenetrable homecourt against Ohio around 1:10 the next morning. I will be doing the same thing in three weeks on the eve of Selection Sunday. Except I will be blogging the entire day for that. (Event brought to you by Full Throttle energy drink)

-Missouri State fans must be thinking, "Please don't let this come down to those 10 guys again." Bears fans, DO NOT look at this image.

-A ridiculous stat from that Missouri St.-Winthrop: The Eagles shot 67.4% in eFG for the game. Yes, including the first 10 minutes of the game.

-A team that started 17-0 has a very real possibility of not making the NCAA Tournament, and it hasn't shocked very many people.

-Andy Glockner on ESPN.com had a great point about Vandy beating Florida, and that is that the Commodores decided to throw the milk-the-clock logic out the window in the second half and just play the way they had been. All teams should take a pointer from Kevin Stallings with a decent second half lead. Sure, if you lose playing your offense, you're going to get burned for not clock-milking, but it's a whole hell of a lot better than losing after taking awkward 30-second possessions.

-I love Butler, but I have had this feeling ever since they had that first conference loss to UIC that this team will get screwed in seedings by the committee (eg Gonzaga in 2002, when they were still a borderline mid-major)

-Under the radar BYU, who might be in position to get as high as a 5 seed, is scoring an unbelievable 1.18 points per possession in Mountain West play. If they had been doing that in non-conference play, the Cougars would lead the nation in that stat.

Wednesday, February 14, 2007

The Xavier Corollary

To be fair, this "theory" could just as easily be named after West Virginia from two years ago or Bradley from last year.

But if you remember the seasons that the aforementioned two teams had, you know what I am talking about. So, The Xavier Corollary is a team that was once left for dead as far as tournament hopes go, but catches fire in the last month or so to end up not only making the dance, but makes a Sweet 16 run.

The best example, and the name sake of this self-created term comes from a 2004 Xavier team that was 10-9 going into their annual Crosstown Shootout against Cincinnati on February 3. At that point, the Musketeers were on the outside of the NIT bubble with a 2-5 A10 record. Eighteen games later, they were thisclose to beating Duke in the Elite Eight and going to the Final Four.

Last year's Sweet 16 Bradley club was 13-9 and 7-7 in the MVC after a February 8 loss against Indiana State. Two years ago, West Virginia was 12-7 and 2-6 in the Big East after February 1 and made it to the Elite Eight and lost in overtime to Louisville.

Prime candidates to keep the yearly Xavier Corollary going this season include San Diego State, Ole Miss, Old Dominion and DePaul. Or maybe none of those teams. You just never know in college basketball.

Monday, February 12, 2007

Updating the Bracket 2-12

South
1. Florida v. 16. East Tennessee State
8. UNLV v. 9. Missouri St.

4. Indiana v. 13. Akron
5. Nevada v. 12. Maryland

2. Kansas v. 15. Long Beach St.
7. BYU v. 10. Notre Dame

3. Washington St. v. 14. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
6. Virginia v. 11. Vanderbilt

West
1. UCLA v. 16. Weber St.
8. Duke v. 9. Texas

4. Southern Illinois v. 13. Oral Roberts
5. Air Force v. 12. Gonzaga

2. Ohio St. v. 15. Austin Peay
7. Stanford v. 10. Florida St.

3. Georgetown v. 14. Vermont
6. Butler v. 11. Alabama

East
1. North Carolina v. 16. Delaware St.
8. Oklahoma St. v. 9. West Virginia

4. Kentucky v. 13. Davidson
5. Oregon v. 12. Winthrop

2. Pittsburgh v. 15. Penn
7. Tennessee v. 10. Kansas St.

3. Memphis v. 14. South Alabama
6. Virginia Tech v. 11. Virginia Commonwealth

Midwest
1. Wisconsin v. 16. Miss. Valley St./Central Conn. St.
8. Villanova v. 9. Creighton

4. Boston College v. 13. Holy Cross
5. Arizona v. 12. Illinois

2. Texas A&M v. 15. Marist
7. Southern Cal v. 10. Xavier

3. Marquette v. 14. Wright St.
6. Clemson v. 11. Georgia

Friday, February 09, 2007

Climbing up the Ivy

The Ivy League, from the perspective of someone who also follows European soccer, is a lot like the Scottish Premier League. Two teams dominate it (Celtic FC and Rangers FC in our Penn and Princeton roles), and you know that one of them is going to win that league's title every year.

But what if...one of them doesn't win? Wouldn't that just tear a hole in the fabric in both universes?

Well, I'm here to tell you no, and this is part of the reason why the Ivy League needs to have a conference tournament.

Among college basketball super-nuts, I feel like the consensus with the Ivy is something along the lines of, "Well, who cares if they have a conference tournament, Penn or Princeton will win it anyway." And justly so. This year, however, I am paying far more attention than would usually be the case, and that is because of Yale.

The school that brought us the skull and bones is leading the Ivy League with a 6-1 record and is right up there with Penn in overall efficiency in the Ivy. And hopefully, if this stays true, and Yale does the nearly unthinkable, it will push this conference into a tournament.

I know exactly what the Ivy brass would tell me, "The Ivy League does not award athletic scholarships and therefore would not deem it appropriate to have a postseason moneymaking venture." (Or something more lawyerspeak than that.)

Two words for all that crap: Patriot. League.

They only started allowing a limited amount of scholarships a couple years ago and even had a tourney when they were exclusively non-scholarship athletes. And they do it by playing all games at campus sites.

And that is why I will, for the at least the next month, be rooting for the Bulldogs to break this mold in hopes of them joining all of us less-intelligent folk in the greatness, fun, tension and heartbreak that is Championship Week. And the double-layered underdog thing is cool too.

Seedings after February 8

The aforemention Ivy League rant will have to wait for later tonight, as will my first bracket matchups and site pairings. But here are the seeds after I adjusted my S-Curve to eliminate intra-conference matchups.

No. 1: Florida, UCLA, North Carolina, Wisconsin
No. 2: Pittsburgh, Marquette, Ohio St., Texas A&M
No. 3: Washington St., Kansas, Kentucky, Oregon
No. 4: Georgetown, Butler, Memphis, Boston College
No. 5: Duke, Southern Illinois, Indiana, Air Force
No. 6: Nevada, Arizona, Virginia, Clemson
No. 7: Florida St., Virginia Tech, Stanford, Southern Cal
No. 8: BYU, Villanova, Oklahoma St., Creighton
No. 9: Missouri St., Texas, UNLV, Notre Dame
No. 10: Vanderbilt, Alabama, Gonzaga, Tennessee
No. 11: Kansas St., Illinois, West Virginia, Virginia Commonwealth
No. 12: Texas Tech, Winthrop, Xavier, Arkansas
No. 13: Davidson, UMass, Holy Cross, Akron
No. 14: Long Beach State, Tex. A&M-Corpus Christi, South Alabama, Oral Roberts
No. 15: Marist, Vermont, East Tennessee State, Austin Peay
No. 16: Yale, Central Conn. State, Delaware St., Jackson St., Weber St.

Thursday, February 08, 2007

Fun Time Stat-ness!

I don't give nearly enough creedence as I should to the genius of tempo-free stats. Let me just sum it up like this: these things don't lie.

Most of the time a TV presentation will tell you how well how well a team is shooting with just a percent number. But the most important statistic(s) in my oh-so-very humble opinion (IMOSVHO?) is (offensive and defensive) points per possession.

Let's take the small sample of two Big 12 teams. First, Texas Tech, which is in a freefallin' tailspin, losing four in a row, after once upon a two weeks ago co-leading the Big 12 (including one of the biggest kick-in-the-nads games against Nebraska on Tuesday). In all four losses, they have fallen below the recognized average point of one in the offensive category and allowed more than the one defensively.

The same exact thing has happened to Oklahoma State in their four conference losses. And if I talked about all the examples of this, I would not only kill my own bandwidth, but all of Blogger's as well.

Also, one of the things that I love that Big Ten Wonk does along the O-PPP/D-PPP lines has been expanded by the great K-Dub. Now, I just need to figure out how to sneak in these kind of stats into my write-ups on Dallas-Ft. Worth area high school games I cover without having to go on a 15-minute explain-a-stat lecture to them.

Look for a new bracket and an Ivy League rant coming tomorrow.

Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Tourney Projected Seeds after Jan. 29

No. 1: Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, UCLA
No. 2: Kansas, Oregon, Ohio St., Pittsburgh
No. 3: Duke, Oklahoma St., Marquette, Texas A&M
No. 4: Memphis, Air Force, Virginia Tech, Butler
No. 5: Washington St., Nevada, Kentucky, Clemson
No. 6: Southern Illinois, Arizona, Texas Tech, Indiana
No. 7: Stanford, Notre Dame, Texas, Georgetown
No. 8: Creighton, Tennessee, Boston College, USC
No. 9: UNLV, Michigan St., Vanderbilt, Georgia
No. 10: Alabama, Villanova, Arkansas, Maryland
No. 11: Missouri St., Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga
No. 12: George Washington, New Mexico St., Virginia Commonwealth, Xavier
No. 13: Davidson, Winthrop, Toledo, Holy Cross
No. 14: South Alabama, Penn, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Oral Roberts
No. 15: Vermont, Cal St.-Fullerton, East Tennessee St., Austin Peay
No. 16: Central Conn. St., Loyola(MD), Weber St., Delaware St., Jackson St.

Tuesday, January 23, 2007

The First Seedings of the Year

1: UCLA, Florida, Wisconsin, North Carolina
2: Texas A&M, Ohio State, Oregon, Pittsburgh
3: Duke, Oklahoma State, Clemson, Washington St.
4: Butler, Arizona, Air Force, Kansas
5: Virginia Tech, Marquette, Tennessee, Indiana
6: Nevada, Texas Tech, Alabama, Memphis
7: Kentucky, Boston College, Southern Illinois, USC
8: Florida St., Texas, LSU, Notre Dame
9: Michigan St., Villanova, Georgia Tech, Arkansas
10: Creighton, Northern Iowa, Georgetown, UNLV
11: Gonzaga, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Missouri St.
12: Drexel, New Mexico St., Davidson, Virginia Comm.
13: Holy Cross, Winthrop, Toledo, Western KY
14: Rhode Island, TAMU-CC, Oral Roberts, Penn
15: East Tennessee St., Long Beach State, Idaho St., Vermont
16: Jackson State, Loyola (MD), Sacred Heart, Delaware St., Austin Peay

Monday, January 22, 2007

Games to keep an eye on the ticker for... Jan. 22-26

In my early Sunday morning post, I forgot to give props to Southern Illinois on a clutch win at Creighton and finishing the job at the Qwest Center where MO State couldn't.

And here are the weekday games to keep an eye on. With an addendum to the national TV part. I simply can't ignore the games that end up on ESPNU and Versus. I will still ignore CSTV because Conference USA is crap.

Monday
High Point at Coastal Carolina
-One of these two teams should be playing at Winthrop on March 3 for the Big South title.

Chicago State at Kansas State
-Don't keep an eye on this, actually. But let me stand up in the Stephen A. Smith Memorial Speaker's Circle and ask WHAT BUSINESS KANSAS STATE HAS PLAYING THIS GAME IN JANUARY????

Norfolk State at Delaware State
-Top two teams in the MEAC standing and the only ones with records at .500 or better.

Tuesday
Florida State at Boston College
-Seminoles have a drop-dead gorgeous RPI, but they need more marquee wins that just the Florida one for Al Thornton to make his first trip to the Big Dance.

Northern Iowa at Southern Illinois
-Not one guy on Northern Iowa is a complete standout, but there are a bunch of good players and their level of teamwork is up there with anyone in the country.

San Diego State at UNLV
-The Aztecs are underachieving at need this kind of win to get back into the MWC/at-large race.

Wednesday
Drexel at UNC-Wilmington
-Again, you don't really have to keep an eye on it, but I have to make a point. A lot of people criticized Brad Brownell for leaving UNCW for Wright State last spring, and now it looks like he knew exactly what he was doing. Wright State is second in the Horizon (bid stealers, possibly) while UNCW is 4-13. The Raiders also have a possible HL 2008 POY in 5-11 guard Dashaun Wood.

Kentucky at Georgia
-Georgia must have been so pissed to let that game against Alabama get away from them. what better way to get that taste out of their mouth than by giving Kentucky a second straight unexpected loss.

Creighton at Missouri State
-Think there's just a little bit of an element of revenge here?

Michigan at Wisconsin
-I feel like the same script goes on with Michigan every single year. Hot start, big marquee win, then collapse.

Winthrop at High Point
-If Winthrop doesn't drop this game, they should go undefeated in conference.

East Tennessee State at Belmont
-Due to possibly the nation's biggest example of Ewing Theory this season (ETSU graduating shot-loving Tim Smith), the two-team A-Sun Battle of Nashville has officially turned into a three-way Tennessee Tussle.

Oakland at Oral Roberts
-First of three meetings, anybody?

Sunday, January 21, 2007

Saturday Observations

-You can officially move Washington to the "Left for Dead" column after their latest version of Leave Everybody Open On Defense against Washington State for all the apples.

-Wichita State is real close to that same column, but something just gives me the feeling this team will make a late-season run. There's just too much talent there to stay in their current Valley spot.

-Poor Iona.

-Appalachian State got a gorilla-sized win at Davidson and showed the rest of the SoCon that they will be in this race for the long haul.

-If this UConn team had South Florida or Baylor across their chests, they wouldn't even be considered on the bubble at this time.

-I have no idea which Alabama or LSU team will show up at what time and for how long during the course of any game and/or week.

-The AP headline for the New Mexico State-Nevada game said, "...NMSU stuns [national ranking censored] Nevada". That game is not a stunner in the least bit. The Land of Enchantment State Aggies have the best team speed in the conference and are an excellent team that has won 14 of 15 (the one a head-scratcher against LA Tech).

Saturday, January 13, 2007

Games to keep an eye on, Weekend Edition

Saturday
Providence at Louisville
-A team possibly underrated and a team possibly overrated

Florida at South Carolina
-If you remember, the NIT champs were the only team to beat the NCAA champs twice last season

Virginia at Boston College
-BC is off to a quiet 3-0 ACC start, while Virginia is constantly up-and-down

South Dakota State at Butler
-I would have said this was an upset possibility at the beginning of the week, but I can't see Butler losing again after the loss to UIC.

Albany at Vermont
-The two best teams in the AmEast square off

Missouri State at Southern Illinois
-It'll be interesting to see if the Bears can keep up their uber-offense against the Salukis' uber-defense

Colorado State at San Diego State
-Remember when I said that Utah was the only easy out in the Mountain West earlier in the week? Well, I forgot TCU.

South Carolina State at Florida A&M
-Two teams breathing right down Delaware State's neck in the MEAC standings

Kansas State at Missouri
-Oh-fer teams in Big 12 play that didn't expect to start that way

Drexel at Old Dominion
-The CAA is becoming like the Valley in that there are two or three games every week that have two quality teams playing

Air Force at Wyoming
-The Falcons are so damn good, but then again, so is Brandon Ewing

Tennessee-Martin at Morehead State
-Morehead State has surely been the surprise story of the OVC so far this year

Loyola(IL) at Illinois-Chicago
-UIC doesn't get an easy day after the giant win over Butler

Washington at Cal
-The Huskies have time to turn around their 1-4 Pac-10 start, but they've got to find ways to play good defense and perform in crunch time. Also, of all the highly touted frosh this year, Spencer Hawes is the most overrated.

Robert Morris at Fairleigh Dickinson
-RMU has the best overall record in the NEC by far, but they are just 2-3 in conference to FDU's 3-0.

Bradley at Indiana State
-Two teams in The Valley that are dark-horse NCAA possibilities, and are both coming off huge wins

Xavier at Saint Louis
-Musketeers are finally starting to realize some of that preseason potential

BYU at UNLV
-UNLV is only 1-2 in the MWC, but has a super-high RPI of 19. Meanwhile, BYU is riding a seven-game winning streak

Nevada at Hawaii
-This trip is normally hell for Nevada, and they won't have Fazekas. However, Sessions and Kemp have emerged to be big-time players in his absence

Sunday
Samford at Tennesee Tech
-All three of the Tennessee OVC teams are doing worse than I thought they would be doing. Samford is leading the conference, meanwhile.

Monday, January 08, 2007

Games to keep an eye on the ticker for...January 8-12

As always, no national TV games on here.

Monday
Old Dominion at Hofstra
Two of the top four team in the CAA with Drexel and surprising VCU.

Tuesday
Clemson at NC State
NC State is probably one of the two worst teams in the ACC, and they're not an easy out.

Loyola(MD) at Siena

Siena is leading the MAAC at 4-0, with the east coast Loyola at 3-1 after Gerald Brown and company beat Marist last week.

Wednesday
Pittsburgh at DePaul
DePaul is just an awful team away from home. At Allstate Arena, though, they haven't been beaten.

Loyola(IL) at Wright State

Both of these teams have a good shot to be first runner-up to Butler in the Horizon.

Hofstra at Drexel
Talent wise, the two best teams in the CAA.

Southern Illinois at Bradley

The theme early on in The Valley is that the top six teams are protecting their home court against each other. At Bradley is a game that the eventual conference winner will probably snatch.

UNLV at Wyoming

Utah is truly the only bad team in the Mountain West.

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi at Northwestern State

This, I believe, will end up as a "passing of the torch game" in the Southland when all is said and done.

Thursday
Washington State at Cal
This Cal team has the potential to lose or win by 25 to just about anybody. The latter won't happen. This Wazzu team finds ways to stay in (and win) games.

Friday
Lipscomb at Belmont
The first round of the Nashville A-Sun supremacy fight. There's going to end up being three rounds.

Creighton at Northern Iowa
In an unrelated Valley note, does anyone realize that Indiana State's RPI is higher that Wichita State's now? And that they have wins over Butler, Purdue and Creighton?