Team X of 65

I am seeing a bunch of fans and media say stuff like 'If x team wins game against x, they get in'. They do it seemingly every year.

I have even been guilty of it, saying that Hofstra can not get in unless the go to the CAA final. However, I believe that to be true, since it would take beating George Mason or UNCW to get to that point would get another top 50 win for them. But most of the time, it is a use of a dumb edict.

For example, this time last year, Northern Iowa lost to Missouri St. (then SMS) in the Valley quarters. Many bracketologists like me thought that not advancing even one round would be the downfall for the Panthers. A week later, Miami U lost in the semis of the MAC, Maryland had their third loss of the year to Clemson in the ACC tourney. My point is that in these next 12 days, anything can happen. And frankly, that's one of the things that makes this sport great, is the fact that there aren't magic numbers, and that we don't know if Air Force or Southern Illinois will get in until 6:00-6:40 ET on the 12th.

Conference tourneys begin tonight for the Big South, SoCon, OVC, Horizon and A-Sun. The OVC is the only conference where I see a no-doubt hands-down winner in Murray St. For the Big South, I like Winthrop, but I have doubts. Coastal Carolina is playing really well under Buzz Peterson, and If they are hitting from outside in a potential final with Winthrop, watch out.

For the Horizon, Milwaukee and Butler should meet in the final, since both have a double bye to the semis. Milwaukee should get through, because they have underachieved while Butler has overachieved to an extent. But like Winthrop, Milwaukee has shown that they are very beatable.

In the SoCon, I still like my preseason pick of Davidson, and think that they can live up to their potential for three games.

The Atlantic Sun may be the most wide open tournament in the country, with Lipscomb, Belmont, Florida Atlantic, Gardner-Webb and East Tennessee State all having a reasonable shot and the title. Again, I will default to my preseason pick of East Tennessee State behind the play of conference player of the year Tim Smith, despite the Bucs being a 5 seed in the A-Sun.