SEC, Valley Talk

Here is a very narrow limb I am willing to go out on: Florida will not win the SEC East or even come in second. Yes, you heard it here first.

Of course the event spawning this prediction is Florida's second straight loss, this one to South Carolina. When you look at Florida's schedule, you see just one real quality win against Syracuse. The rest, even with 5 other RPI Top 100 wins, are teams that they should have handled.

But since that one quality win came in the final of a preseason, nationally televised tournament, the Gators not losing until their 18th game game got them to #2 in the polls (did anyone seriously think they were better than UConn?).

Meanwhile, Kentucky, as maligned as they have been, has just as many Top 100 wins and one more Top 50 win than the Gators. Let's not forget as well that Kentucky still has a very talented backcourt, one that is an incredibly deep one when clicking. Also, Randolph Morris at least gives them some stability in the middle.

In mid major new, my fellow hoop blogger Kyle "K-Dub" Whelliston has a good piece on ESPN.com about how The Valley gets four teams into the Dance. I'm actually not sure it will be that tough to hit the four-banger.

Northern Iowa, barring injury or collapse, is in, as their RPI is in the teens, and they are 5-2 against the Top 50.

Creighton, even without Nate Funk, has (amazingly) been 3-1 against the RPI Top 50.

Southern Ilinois, behind Matt Shaw and Jamaal Tatum, is tied for the conference lead at 8-2 with UNI and Wichita State.

Speaking of Wichita State, this team, IMO, is the fourth best, and likely to pick up the last spot of a "4BV". However, their RPI is in the low twenties and their conference record is outstanding.

I don't want to say that Missouri State is out of it, as I love the way Blake Ahearn plays, but it will be tough to come back from 5-5.

However, the resumes of the former four are stellar, and I'd say that there is a 60 percent chance they all make it.