Team X of 65

I am seeing a bunch of fans and media say stuff like 'If x team wins game against x, they get in'. They do it seemingly every year.

I have even been guilty of it, saying that Hofstra can not get in unless the go to the CAA final. However, I believe that to be true, since it would take beating George Mason or UNCW to get to that point would get another top 50 win for them. But most of the time, it is a use of a dumb edict.

For example, this time last year, Northern Iowa lost to Missouri St. (then SMS) in the Valley quarters. Many bracketologists like me thought that not advancing even one round would be the downfall for the Panthers. A week later, Miami U lost in the semis of the MAC, Maryland had their third loss of the year to Clemson in the ACC tourney. My point is that in these next 12 days, anything can happen. And frankly, that's one of the things that makes this sport great, is the fact that there aren't magic numbers, and that we don't know if Air Force or Southern Illinois will get in until 6:00-6:40 ET on the 12th.

Conference tourneys begin tonight for the Big South, SoCon, OVC, Horizon and A-Sun. The OVC is the only conference where I see a no-doubt hands-down winner in Murray St. For the Big South, I like Winthrop, but I have doubts. Coastal Carolina is playing really well under Buzz Peterson, and If they are hitting from outside in a potential final with Winthrop, watch out.

For the Horizon, Milwaukee and Butler should meet in the final, since both have a double bye to the semis. Milwaukee should get through, because they have underachieved while Butler has overachieved to an extent. But like Winthrop, Milwaukee has shown that they are very beatable.

In the SoCon, I still like my preseason pick of Davidson, and think that they can live up to their potential for three games.

The Atlantic Sun may be the most wide open tournament in the country, with Lipscomb, Belmont, Florida Atlantic, Gardner-Webb and East Tennessee State all having a reasonable shot and the title. Again, I will default to my preseason pick of East Tennessee State behind the play of conference player of the year Tim Smith, despite the Bucs being a 5 seed in the A-Sun.

Brackets for 2-27

Atlanta Region
1. Duke (1) v. 16. Georgia Southern
8. Cincinnati v. 9. George Mason

5. Washington v. 12. Indiana
4. George Washington v. 13. Northwestern St.

6. Kansas v. 11. UAB
3. Pittsburgh v. 14. Penn

2. Illinois v. 15. Albany
7. Wichita St. v. 10. Kentucky

Oakland Region
1. Memphis (4) v. 16. Belmont
8. Nevada v. 9. Arizona

5. West Virginia v. 12. Bucknell
4. Wisconsin v. 13. Milwaukee

6. NC State v. 11. Colorado
3. UCLA v. 14. Pacific

2. Texas v. 15. Oral Roberts
7. Alabama v. 10. Syracuse

Washington Region
1. UConn (2) v. 16. Southern/Fairleigh Dickinson
8. Michigan v. 9. Creighton

5. Florida v. 12. UNC Wilmington
4. North Carolina v. 13. Western Kentucky

6. Georgetown v. 11. San Diego St.
3. Tennessee v. 14. Winthrop

2. Ohio St. v. 15. Murray St.
7. Oklahoma v. 10. Missouri St.

Minneapolis Region
1. Villanova (3) v. Delaware St.
8. Arkansas v. 9. Northern Iowa

5. Boston College v. 12. Air Force
4. Iowa v. 13. Kent St.

6. Michigan St. v. 11. Bradley
3. LSU v. 14. Manhattan

2. Gonzaga v. 15. Northern Arizona
7. Marquette v. 10. California

Seeding Update as of 2-24

1: Duke, Villanova, UConn, Memphis
2: Gonzaga, Texas, Ohio St., Tennessee
3: Illinois, Iowa, Pittsburgh, Kansas
4: Florida, UCLA, LSU, North Carolina
5: West Virginia, Michigan St., Washington, NC State
6: Georgetown, Marquette, Wisconsin, George Washington
7: Oklahoma, Boston College, Wichita St., Michigan
8: Syracuse, Northern Iowa, California, Nevada
9: Creighton, George Mason, Alabama, Cincinnati
10: Kentucky, Missouri St., Arizona, Arkansas
11: Seton Hall, San Diego St., Colorado, Bradley
12: Bucknell, UNC Wilmington, Utah St., UAB
13: Northwestern St., Kent St., Milwaukee, Western Kentucky
14. Penn, Murray St., Pacific, Manhattan
15: Winthrop, Georgia Southern, Albany, Northern Arizona
16. (Delaware St., Southern) Lipscomb, Fairleigh Dickinson, IUPUI

Brackets as of Games of 2-20

Atlanta Region

1. Duke (1) v. 16. Southern/Delaware St.
8. Seton Hall v. 9. Michigan

4. Kansas v. 13. Bradley
5. George Washington v. 12. UAB

2. Ohio St. v. 15. Murray St.
7. Washington v. Syracuse

3. Pittsburgh v. 14. Penn
6. Northern Iowa v. 11. Utah St.

Oakland Region

1. Memphis (4) v. 16. Belmont
8. Nevada v. 9. San Diego St.

4. West Virginia v. 13. Pacific
5. LSU v. 12. Southern Illinois

2. Illinois v. 15. IUPUI
7. Oklahoma v. 10. Cincinnati

3. Tennessee v. 14. Winthrop
6. UCLA v. 11. Missouri St.

Washington Region

1. Villanova (2) v. 16. Albany
8. George Mason v. 9. Colorado

4. Florida v. 13. Iona
5. North Carolina v. 12. Western Kentucky

2. Gonzaga v. 15. Northern Arizona
7. California v. 10. Creighton

3. Michigan St. v. 14. Milwaukee
6. Marquette v. 11. Arkansas

Minneapolis Region

1. UConn (3) v. 16. Fairleigh Dickinson
8. Alabama v. 9. Wichita St.

4. NC State v. 13. Northwestern St.
5. Wisconsin v. 12. Bucknell

2. Texas v. 15. Davidson
7. Boston College v. 10. Arizona

3. Iowa v. 14. Kent St.
6. Georgetown v. 11. Kentucky

SEC, Valley Talk

Here is a very narrow limb I am willing to go out on: Florida will not win the SEC East or even come in second. Yes, you heard it here first.

Of course the event spawning this prediction is Florida's second straight loss, this one to South Carolina. When you look at Florida's schedule, you see just one real quality win against Syracuse. The rest, even with 5 other RPI Top 100 wins, are teams that they should have handled.

But since that one quality win came in the final of a preseason, nationally televised tournament, the Gators not losing until their 18th game game got them to #2 in the polls (did anyone seriously think they were better than UConn?).

Meanwhile, Kentucky, as maligned as they have been, has just as many Top 100 wins and one more Top 50 win than the Gators. Let's not forget as well that Kentucky still has a very talented backcourt, one that is an incredibly deep one when clicking. Also, Randolph Morris at least gives them some stability in the middle.

In mid major new, my fellow hoop blogger Kyle "K-Dub" Whelliston has a good piece on ESPN.com about how The Valley gets four teams into the Dance. I'm actually not sure it will be that tough to hit the four-banger.

Northern Iowa, barring injury or collapse, is in, as their RPI is in the teens, and they are 5-2 against the Top 50.

Creighton, even without Nate Funk, has (amazingly) been 3-1 against the RPI Top 50.

Southern Ilinois, behind Matt Shaw and Jamaal Tatum, is tied for the conference lead at 8-2 with UNI and Wichita State.

Speaking of Wichita State, this team, IMO, is the fourth best, and likely to pick up the last spot of a "4BV". However, their RPI is in the low twenties and their conference record is outstanding.

I don't want to say that Missouri State is out of it, as I love the way Blake Ahearn plays, but it will be tough to come back from 5-5.

However, the resumes of the former four are stellar, and I'd say that there is a 60 percent chance they all make it.

Brackets for this week

Washington Region
1. UConn (1) v. 16. Sacred Heart (NEC)
8. UAB v. 9. Michigan
4. UCLA v. 13. Manhattan (MAAC)
5. NC State v. 12. Alabama

6. Arizona v. 11. S. Illinois
3. Florida v. 14. Northwestern St. (Southland)
7. Syracuse v. 10. Oklahoma
2. Michigan St. v. 15. UC Irvine (Big West)

Oakland Region
1. Texas (4) v. 16. Delaware St. (MEAC)
8. Marquette v. 9. North Carolina
4. Ohio St. v. 13. Tennessee Tech (OVC)
5. Washington v. 12. Old Dominion (CAA)

6. Creighton v. 11. Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Horizon)
3. Wisconsin v. 14. Penn (Ivy)
7. Maryland v. 10. Iowa St.
2. Villanova v. 15. Northern Arizona (Big Sky)

Atlanta Region
1. Duke (2) v. 16. Elon (SoCon)
8. Vanderbilt v. 9. Wichita St.
4. Pittsburgh v. 13. Winthrop (Big South)
5. Iowa v. 12. Akron (MAC)

6. Cincinnati v. 11. Clemson
3. Gonzaga (WCC) v. 14. San Diego St. (MWC)
7. Bucknell (Patriot) vs. 10. Kentucky
2. Illinois v. 15. IUPUI (Mid-Con)

Minneapolis Region
1. Memphis (3) v. 16. Binghampton (AmEast)/Southern (SWAC)
8. Georgetown v. 9. Boston College
4. Tennessee v. 13. Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
5. George Washington v. 12. Colorado

6. Northern Iowa v. 11. Kansas St.
3. Indiana v. 14. Louisiana Tech (WAC)
7. LSU v. 10. Xavier
2. West Virginia v. 15. Florida Atlantic (A-Sun)

Bubblicious outsiders: Nevada, Arkansas, Air Force, Miami (FL), Missouri St., Iona, Missouri

Wow, An Update is a Novel Idea

Was there any more irrelevant night of the season than last night? Even on Super Bowl Sunday hoops is more noticeable.

Marquette had essentially a “beginner’s luck” win against UConn in their first Big East game.

This game changes nothing, however. Things like these happen to excellent teams in conference play. How quickly we forget UConn’s Jekyll-and-hyde January (and part of February) two years ago during their championship season.

Unfortunately, with the inconsequential concept of polls in college basketball, UConn will drop even when it is obvious that this is still a top five team.

Meanwhile, the Golden Eagles’ win really cements the Big East as the conference that will likely get the most teams into the tournament.

Mark my words, a 6-10 team will get in from the Big East.

Texas’ win over Memphis was something that was desperately needed for the school where one Vincent Young has moved up to permanent God status.

It is alarming, though, that the Longhorns are getting underachieving performances out of players not named Gibson and Tucker. Even so, Chad Ford has LaMarcus Aldridge number one on his NBA potential…I mean NBA draft board.

The Washington-Arizona game on New Year’s Eve was a classic and again, it was a game where a team had to make a statement. And did.

Oh, and how about Ohio State coming back to win a game where they were outplayed for 35 minutes.

The lack of mid-majors in this blog is putrid at best. If I don’t clean up my act, I might as well call this the BCS, A10 and Memphis digest.

Therefore, I will run through all mid-major conferences weekly starting tomorrow.

Slow Down, National Wonks

It’s not of this blog to be a media critic, but I just can’t stand what so many of the national college basketball media (or the Gang of 500, according to Yoni Cohen) are doing in already talking about player of the year.

To say that either JJ Redick or Adam Morrison is a lock for the award(s) would be like saying that either Peyton Manning or Shaun Alexander was a lock for NFL MVP this season after Week 7. There’s just too much that can happen between now and then.

Besides, to only highlight two players thus far discredits players who are having awesome seasons to this point like Paul Davis, Dee Brown and Je’Kel Foster. Players from smaller conferences are also having dynamite years like LA Tech’s Paul Millsap or Western Kentucky’s Anthony Winchester.

West Virginia picks up a very nice (essentially) road win, while Oklahoma State takes care of previously unbeaten, Longhorn-slaying Tennessee.

Cincinnati gets revenge on their sluggish loss to Dayton, and really has turned the corner since early December. Andy Kennedy found out that starting a turnover-prone guy named Jihad at the point can never be good, and promptly adjusted his lineup. The post-Huggins era might not be that bad after all.

The Return of Randolph

Just when you think that Kentucky may be in a chronic tailspin, the NCAA reverses its decision on Mr. Morris.

The reason for the reversal: a misplaced fax from Morris, lost by Tubby deep in the annals of his desk.

The letter addressed to ‘Orlando Smith’ simply says this: “First of all, I would like to thank you and your staff for the many opportunities and benefits afforded me this year. However, I would like to announce my intentions to 'test the waters' in the 2005 NBA draft. My intent is not to obtain an agent so as to maintain my collegiate eligibility.”

Three sentences and they probably saved Kentucky’s season.

Kentucky fans have to be asking themselves questions like, all that beating around the bush for this? Couldn’t we have taken care of this sooner? Can I organize Tubby’s desk for him?

Just be grateful Cat fans, you could have been stuck with Shagari Alleyne, Lukasz Obrzut and Jared Carter the whole season.

Morris will be eligible to return for the conference opener Jan. 10 against Vanderbilt.

First Field of 65 of the Season

I decided not to get concerned with potential tournament matchups this early in the season. Don't expect those until about mid-January, once everyone has gotten a few conference games under their belt.

No. 1s: UConn, Duke, Villanova, Washington
2s: Florida, Memphis, Gonzaga, Illinois
3s: Texas, Michigan St., Louisville, Oklahoma
4s: UCLA, Indiana, North Carolina, Maryland
5s: Houston, Iowa, Boston College, Iowa St.
6s: NC State, Wisconsin, Ohio St., Vanderbilt
7s: Wake Forest, Michigan, Bucknell, LSU
8s: Kentucky, George Washington, Arizona, Syracuse
9s: Nevada, Arkansas, Northern Iowa, Notre Dame
10s: DePaul, Kansas, Xavier, Cincinnati
11s: St. Joe's, West Virginia, Alabama, Georgetown
12s: Oklahoma St., Iona, Indiana St., Utah, Temple
13s: Ohio, Western Kentucky, Old Dominion, Wis.-Milwaukee
14s: Davidson, Winthrop, Pacific, Oral Roberts
15s: Murray St., Gardner-Webb, Penn, Montana
16s: Northwestern St., Fairleigh Dickinson, Vermont, (Southern, South Carolina St.)

Yes, it was a pretty big crap shoot but I awarded teams that have shown something so far (Washington, North Carolina), and put underachieving teams in lower spots than what most expected (Kansas, West Virginia, Wake Forest).

Odd anomalies from this first field: nine from the Big East (!), seven from the Big Ten, just three from the Pac-10, and four from the A-10.

Also, the mid-majors were basically picked according to a variety of factors including RPI, record (conference for some), and most importantly, just who I think is the best of the conference, even if you lose an early conference game (Old Dominion).

Big Games This Week

Wednesday
Winthrop @ South Carolina
No one should have been the least been surprised at Winthrop’s near takedown of Alabama in Tuscaloosa on Saturday. It would be purely utopian to suggest that this win would boost Winthrop’s potential at-large candidacy because once Big South play kicks off, the Eagles current RPI will plummet faster than you can utter “There’s a Charleston Southern?”

Thursday
Wisconsin-Milwaukee @ Wisconsin
Ladies and Gentlemen, we present to you the battle of the Tuckers! Whatever you do, however, don’t expect this contest to be exciting. Each team is coming off of wins in the fifties, and that should stay true.

Missouri St. @ Arkansas
This is the test of the week for a mid-major team as the Bears take their undefeated record into Fayetteville. Last week, they got a nice win over a good Oral Roberts team. The Razorbacks have not lost since Maui, but this will be their toughest test since then. The Bears have five players averaging double-figures, including guard Blake Ahearn, who is averaging more than 21 a night. Arkansas runs through Ronnie Brewer, but 6-10 C Darian Townes will be a key factor against a smaller Bears lineup.

Saturday
UCLA @ Michigan
Big man Courtney Sims has been a pleasant surprise for Tommy Amaker, who has felt his seat become a little less warm with a 7-0 start. Sims is currently the leading scorer and rebounder on the team, and is shooting over 68 percent(!). Meanwhile, UCLA should win this contest because of the play of Arron Affalo and Jordan Farmar, who were excellent in the much needed statement win over Nevada on Saturday.

Louisville @ Kentucky
Will Kentucky fail to show up for a third consecutive Saturday on national TV? I wouldn’t bet against Louisville.

Arizona @ Utah
The Wildcats could use a quality non-conference win badly. However, with their play being so erratic and usually bad, a smart Utah team could wipe the floor with them. Or the ‘Cats might blow the Utes out by actually showing their potential for a game.

Ohio St. @ Iowa St.
A good sign for the Buckeyes is that five guys are currently in double figures, and neither of the top two are named Terence Dials. However, the Buckeyes’ leading glass cleaner is off-guard JJ Sullinger. Iowa State also has three 6-10 or over players who have been getting significant minutes. If those players can clean the glass against a small Ohio State team, Curtis Stinson and Will Blalock will look like cyclones all day long.


Virginia Tech vs. Stanford @ Las Vegas
Stanford needs a win so bad right now it hurts.



I am currently putting together the first of many bracket projections to be first shown on this site.

Gonzaga, Washington Go Racing

The Gonzaga-Washington game was simply a blast to watch. Ken Pomeroy’s pace statistics had it as a ‘NASCAR’-type game.

Meanwhile, Adam Morrison is such a scoring powerhouse that it almost seemes he had a quiet 43 points, as ridiculous as that sounds. With this Gonzaga team, one knows that Morrison will be getting the ball just about every time down the floor.

It shouldn’t be that way, though. This team is more loaded than the counterparts of Zags past.

Morrison shoots a high percentage for the type of player that he is, but there are other options like Jeremy Pargo, JP Batista, Sean Mallon, and the back-bruised Derek Raivio.

Northwestern State at Gallagher-Iba, easy tune-up for Gonzaga, right? WRONG. Versatile forward Clifton Lee poured in 24 points to go along with 9 boards. The Demons’ win ended Oklahoma State’s 44 game home win streak against lesser known teams between the end of fall and start of winter. Or something like that.

Palo Alto, it’s time to panic. Next possible tree-chopper: Denver with C Yemi Nicholson.

Much is being made about the frontcourt in tonight’s Michigan State-Boston College matchup. However, guard play will decide this game.

Louis Hinnant at the point has a size advantage over Drew Neitzel, his Spartan counterpart, and thus has a slight advantage getting the ball inside to Jared Dudley and Craig Smith.

However, at the two spot Maurice Ager is far better than Sean Marshall. That’s no knock against Sean Marshall, it’s just that Ager is so skilled shooting and off the dribble. His presence will lead the Spartans to victory tonight.

You can bet that the Sojka will be rocking when Villanova comes to Lewisberg to play Bucknell as the two best teams in the Quaker State face off (sorry Pitt) (oh wait, no I’m not).

Buknell really should have chance in the game, but Chris McNaughton has got to rise his toughness level in order to make himself the best player in the game. Also, his role will be crucial when Allan Ray, Randy Foye or Kyle Lowry comes barreling into the lane.

The quickness of Bucknell’s guards and the ability of their bench actually matches up better to the Wildcats than Oklahoma did.

Villanova Takes It To the Sooners

Villanova’s four-guard attack (and Jason Fraser, too) was great against Oklahoma. Randy Foye’s career-high 32, Allan Ray’s 21, and a 57% shooting clip were more than enough to take the small, quick lineup to victory over the powerful, strong one.

The matchup problems for Oklahoma were glaring at times, with Kevin Bookout getting trapped on the perimeter on occasion and subsequently eating the dust of the smaller player. Also, after Taj Gray, Bookout and Terrell Everett, Oklahoma does not have players who like taking shots in tough spots. With Gray and Bookout prone to fouls, this problem may come to haunt the Sooners in a conference (or even non-conference) game(s) to be named later.

Going back to the Wildcats, if ‘Nova can get performances like the one Jason Fraser had on Staurday, the shadow of Curtis Sumpter in the frontcourt will keep gettting smaller and smaller. Perhaps the biggest play of the game was Fraser’s dunk with 6:11 to go to make the lead 13.

There is one word that comes to mind when talking about Kentucky’s performance today: uninspired. Every time that they needed someone…anyone to make a play in the second half, it was not there. Yes, that means you, Rajon Rondo.

Credit should be given to UNC in the meantime as the freshmen made solid plays as the elder statesmen of Reyshawn Terry and David Noel are proving that they will be good leaders for the kiddies.

Houston and Oliver Lafayette: proving a bunch of unenlightened pundits wrong about C-USA being a one-bid league.

Does anyone realize that this happened Friday night?

Another week, another major conference team beaten at home by Bucknell. Up next for the Bison: Villanova.

Carolina on Right Track

Last night, North Carolina impressed, even in a loss. This Carolina team seems a lot like the ’03 Carolina team, when May, McCants, Felton and most notably, Noel were freshmen. That team had moments of brilliance in the first half of the season, before Sean May went down for the year. It’s not right to compare those two teams, but this is a very talented bunch that just has to be more disciplined.

For example, even though Illinois had two more turnovers than UNC, the Tar Heels’ giveaways were costly, as usually some kind of world-beating pass was trying to be made with someone open on the perimeter. Bobby Frasor, Marcus Ginyard and the rest of the newbies will learn in time.

Also, in the Big Ten-ACC Challenge, something doesn’t seem to be right with Wake Forest still. With no Chris Paul, this team should not be winning the same way as last year. Currently, the way they are going to win most of their games is by Justin Gray hitting his shots and make his free throws. He did both last night. And with freshman Harvey Hale running the point, and making freshman type plays at times, the Deacons just look erratic.

Oh my Purdue, how bad have you fallen?

I knew Houston would make some noise out of conference.

The first bad loss of the Andy Kennedy era at Cincinnati happened last night…to a very mediocre Dayton team.

For Indiana to beat Duke tonight, the combination of Marco Killingsworth and Sean Kline has to shut down Shelden Williams. Frankly, the Hoosiers should even allow JJ Redick to get 25-35 points. If Williams is consistently getting the ball like he did against Memphis in his 30-point night, the Hoosiers will not even come within 10 points of winning.

The next best game on the schedule also comes from the lovable made-for-TV extravaganza, and that game would be NC State and Iowa.

The striking thing about both teams is their depth. NC State has eight players averaging at least 10 minutes a game, while Iowa has nine guys who are at double-digits in minutes.
Each team is incredibly balanced offensively and superb defensively as well. This may be a 58-54 game, but it will be good to watch to two teams that have played great so far.